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The AI trade is back on, and it's coming from the most unexpected corner: a legacy chipmaker long written off just posted a quarter that blew past every expectation. A small-cap chip peer is running even harder, putting up one of the biggest single-day moves of the earnings season.

Outside of chips, the pattern splits cleanly. An enterprise software name beat expectations and cut against the SaaS-apocalypse narrative, while a regional casino operator missed where it can least afford to. And one lender managed to beat and raise and still trade lower.

Tesla (TSLA) and SpaceX: still two companies, or one by 2027?

Wedbush's Dan Ives is betting on the latter, pointing to a joint chip factory in Austin, a pending SpaceX IPO targeting a $1.75T valuation, and operational ties that are tightening fast. Markets are giving it about a 1-in-5 shot by this time next year.

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MaxLinear (MXL): +42%

The chipmaker blew past quarterly estimates and raised its forecast, and the stock is running with it. When a small-cap semi name beats and guides higher at the same time, the market rarely asks twice.

Intel (INTC): +28%

The chipmaker crushed first-quarter expectations on both the top and bottom line, and its second-quarter forecast was well ahead of where the street was looking. After years of being the broken-down name in the semi space, Intel just delivered the kind of print that reopens the bull case.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): +12%

Shares surged as investors rediscovered their faith in the AI trade after Intel's blowout, with DA Davidson piling on an upgrade. The firm's pitch: if Intel is the canary, AMD's CPU business is about to ramp hard.

SAP (SAP): +7%

The enterprise software giant beat on earnings and cloud revenue grew 19%, cutting against the broader narrative that AI is eating SaaS. For a name that's been swept up in SaaS-apocalypse fears, a clean cloud print is the story.

Boyd Gaming (BYD): -8%

The casino operator missed on both earnings and revenue, with soft performance in its Las Vegas business dragging the whole quarter down. When the home market is the weak spot for a regional gaming name, the rest of the portfolio has a hard time carrying the story.

Hartford Insurance Group (HIG): -4%

The insurer missed on both earnings and revenue in the first quarter. After a run of clean prints from Hartford, a double miss is exactly the kind of surprise that forces analysts back to their models.

SLM (SLM): -2%

Sallie Mae beat on earnings and raised its full-year guidance, but the stock is still down. When a beat-and-raise sends a stock lower, the market is telling you expectations were already higher than the actual print.

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Microsoft (MSFT) + 1.3% (Pre-Market)

Microsoft reports earnings next Wednesday, and the buildup has been loud. The stock has rebounded roughly 16% off its late-March lows but remains down meaningfully year-to-date.

The retail chatter across Reddit and Stocktwits is focused on two things: whether Azure growth re-accelerates above the 37-38% guide, and how the company addresses the fact that roughly 45% of its $625 billion cloud backlog is tied to OpenAI.

The setup is loaded either way. Nadella's mid-April announcement that the Fairwater AI data center came online ahead of schedule has fueled optimism that supply constraints may be easing, but analysts have also been trimming price targets into the print.

This could be the quarter that either resets the AI cloud narrative or deepens the one investors have been worried about all year.

✌️That’s it for today.