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There are two ways to be priced this morning, and AI decides which one you get.

Names with contracted dollars flowing into AI infrastructure are running double digits before the bell. Names whose business models are in AI's path are getting punished just as hard.

The tells are everywhere. Layoff announcements are landing on both sides of the ledger and being read as strength on one and as a story breaking down on the other.

Markets don’t guess—they price probability.

Right now, traders on Kalshi are putting real money behind one of the biggest geopolitical questions in the world: Will the U.S. and Iran reach a nuclear deal?

Odds are shifting in real time as headlines break, diplomacy moves, and global markets react.

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Akamai Technologies (AKAM): +23.6%

The cybersecurity and cloud computing name is surging on a $1.8 billion, seven-year commitment from a leading U.S.-based frontier AI model provider for its Cloud Infrastructure Services. A first-quarter earnings beat helped, but the AI deal is the entire story: Akamai just got named-and-funded as critical infrastructure for the AI buildout.

JFrog (FROG): +18.8%

The supply-chain software company beat on its full-year earnings forecast and topped second-quarter guidance on both top and bottom lines. For a software name in a market that's been brutal to anything missing the bar, a clean beat-and-raise is doing exactly what it should.

IREN Limited (IREN): +12.9%

The data center operator announced a deal with Nvidia to deploy up to five gigawatts of AI infrastructure, with Nvidia also committing $2.1 billion in investment. The chipmaker is increasingly putting equity into its biggest customers, and IREN just got the validation stamp.

Monster Beverage (MNST): +6.3%

The energy drink maker blew past first-quarter expectations on both earnings and revenue. After a stretch of margin pressure, a clean top-line surprise is what the market wanted to see from this name.

Upwork (UPWK): -24.1%

The freelance marketplace announced a restructuring that includes cutting 24% of its workforce, which management framed as necessary to stay profitable as work evolves. Translation: AI is eating into the platform's core use case, and the company is acknowledging it has to shrink to survive.

Cloudflare (NET): -15.5%

The internet services company is plunging on plans to reduce headcount by roughly 1,100 people, with second-quarter revenue guidance landing right at the consensus line. When a high-multiple growth name announces layoffs and merely meets expectations, the market reads it as a story breaking down.

Trade Desk (TTD): -13.1%

The ad-tech name issued current-quarter revenue guidance well below what analysts were modeling, while first-quarter earnings also missed. After a year of questions about competition from walled gardens and AI-driven ad platforms, soft guidance is exactly the confirmation bears were waiting for.

Toast (TOST): -11.5%

The restaurant payments platform guided second-quarter adjusted EBITDA well below consensus, even as first-quarter revenue came in line. For a profitability story still being built, soft margin guidance is the wrong note to hit.

Earnings calls move markets—but the biggest edge is knowing what investors are watching before management speaks.

On Kalshi, traders are putting real money behind key questions for Coca-Cola’s next call:

Instead of reacting to headlines after the fact, see where the market is placing its bets in real time.

Because sometimes the most important signal isn’t what management says—it’s what the market expects them to say.

Applied Materials (AMAT)

The semiconductor equipment giant reports Q2 results next Thursday, and retail traders are circling ahead of the print. The setup: AMAT is up roughly 52% year-to-date on the AI capex thesis, TSMC just raised its 2026 capital spending plan, and Morgan Stanley hiked its price target on AMAT to $454 this week, framing the upcoming report as "a second leap" after February's blowout.

Stocktwits chatter has been heavy and bullish, with traders debating whether another beat-and-raise can keep the run going or whether the bar is now too high. After running this hard into earnings, the report could either validate the AI equipment supercycle thesis or trigger a sharp reset.